Permittable Generation Capacity

Summary

Regulatory Assessment — Victoria County, Texas

Technology Fit Matrix

Analysis

Victoria County, Texas is designated attainment/unclassifiable for all NAAQS criteria pollutants, establishing a 250 tpy NOx PSD major-source threshold for an unnamed source category. An illustrative 50 MW continuous fleet calculation at a generic 0.10 g/kWh NOx emission factor yields approximately 48.3 tpy NOx — well below the PSD trigger. The PSD avoidance boundary under these illustrative assumptions is approximately 258.9 MW, suggesting the 50 MW target could remain below major-source review if equipment-backed emission factors confirm.

However, the assessment scores Tier 3 (material unresolved path) for two primary reasons. First, no equipment-backed project model has been presented — the illustrative PTE uses a generic emission factor rather than OEM-guaranteed factors for a specified turbine or engine make, model, and count. TCEQ’s standard permit for natural gas EGUs (NGEGU SP, effective January 2025) covers only spark-ignited reciprocating engines with a 400 hour/year operating limit, rendering it unsuitable for continuous 50 MW generation. Gas turbines require a case-by-case New Source Review permit with BACT evaluation.

Second, the Victoria County Groundwater Conservation District adopted a temporary moratorium on June 12, 2026 (Resolution RES-20260612-01), halting processing of applications for high-capacity and deep-saline groundwater wells. With 2026 Proposed Rules under rulemaking review (hearing reconvened October 2, 2026), the water authorization pathway is materially unresolved. No water source, entitlement, or discharge plan has been established. Alternative water sources (municipal supply, surface water rights, or air-cooled/low-water technology configurations) would need to be evaluated independently.

Texas has demonstrated a willingness to permit large-scale data center generation — TCEQ has authorized 7.65 GW of gas-fired capacity in Pecos County and approved Project Matador near Amarillo. The federal Subpart KKKKa rule (January 2026) adds a 5 ppm NOx standard for applicable new turbines. The path to Tier 2 requires an equipment-backed project model with guaranteed emission factors, a credible water authorization plan addressing the GCD moratorium, and an identified case-by-case NSR filing strategy.

Next Steps

• Specify equipment: select turbine/engine make, model, and count with OEM-guaranteed emission factors and heat rates for a 50 MW net continuous duty cycle
• Resolve water authorization: evaluate alternative water sources (municipal supply, surface water, or low-water technology) given the active VCGCD moratorium on high-capacity wells
• Engage TCEQ early: initiate pre-application consultation for case-by-case NSR and determine applicable BACT requirements for the selected technology
• Evaluate KKKKa applicability: if turbines >850 MMBtu/hr HHV are selected, assess the 5 ppm NOx limit and confirm compliant control configurations
• Monitor VCGCD rulemaking: track the 2026 Proposed Rules and moratorium status for changes that may reopen high-capacity groundwater permitting