Time-to-Power Inputs

Summary

Timeline Breakdown

COMPONENT	LOW (MO)	HIGH (MO)
Component 1 — POI-side construction	24	36
Component 1b — Site-to-POI delivery path Parallel with Component 1; POI-side construction is critical	11	23
Component 2 — ERCOT study process	6	12
Component 3 — CCN/CPCN permitting	0	0
Effective construction (parallel) Critical: POI-side construction	24	36
Total	30	48
Base midpoint	39 months
Final adjusted midpoint	39 months

Substations Meeting 250 MW Target

NAME	kV	YEAR	WORST MW	BEST MW	DIST (MI)
LINNVILLE	138	2025	308	308	7.6
PLEDGER	138	2025	530	530	14.3
Gulf Star	138	2025	448	448	15.8
NEW GULF	138	2025	406	406	17.2
REFUGE	345	2026	342	342	8.7
HAWKINS POI	345	2028	312	312	8.2
SWEENY	138	2029	283	283	9.9
West Columbia Main	230	2029	283	283	15.5

Analysis

LINNVILLE (138 kV) is the selected Point of Interconnection (POI), located 7.6 miles from the site boundary in BRAZORIA County, Texas. The substation demonstrates worst-case offtake capacity of 308 MW (capacity from the 2025 study year), exceeding the 250 MW target load.

The estimated time-to-power range is 30–48 months (midpoint 39 months), placing the site in the Extended zone. The binding constraint is poi-side construction. ERCOT interconnection study processes (6–12 months) run sequentially with construction. Texas exempts existing-substation modifications from CCN permitting requirements, eliminating a potential 6–18 month regulatory delay.

Eight substations within the 25-mile search radius meet the 250 MW worst-case offtake threshold in at least one study year. The delivery path from the site to LINNVILLE (7.6 miles at 138 kV) is absorbed into the POI-side construction timeline under the parallelism rule, as POI-side construction is the longer track.

Key Risks

Upgrade class at LINNVILLE cannot be determined from available data; the substation expansion benchmark (24–36 months) is used as a conservative default
Offtake capacity values represent a planning-study envelope, not a firm deliverable; actual hosting capacity requires utility confirmation
Delivery-path construction estimates are based on industry benchmarks and do not account for site-specific ROW or environmental constraints

Next Steps

Submit a large-load interconnection request to ERCOT for LINNVILLE to confirm actual upgrade requirements and timeline
Engage with CenterPoint Energy (local TDU) to validate delivery-path routing and construction estimates
Conduct detailed transmission study to confirm offtake availability and identify any network upgrade triggers
Evaluate alternative POIs (REFUGE 345kV at 8.7 mi, HAWKINS POI 345kV at 8.2 mi) as higher-voltage backup options

Measurement: WGS 84 / UTM zone 15N (EPSG:32615), utm

Offtake Capacity Envelope — LINNVILLE