Time-to-Power Inputs

No major upgrade required — 6.0 mo
Criteria: Tier 1 <24 mo (no major upgrade) · Tier 2 24–35 mo (bay/breaker or expansion) · Tier 3 36–59 mo (transformer upgrade) · Fail ≥60 mo (new transmission line / CCN required). Lower is better. Unit: months.
Source: Geoforge grid dataset · US Substations · 2026-06-16
SITE ASSESSMENT
✓ Tier 1
6.0 months effective timeline at CANEY 138 kV
PRIMARY POI
CANEY 138 kV 3.7 mi
Bound to Slide 2 (Withdrawal Capacity)
BINDING UPGRADE
No major upgrade required
6–18 mo (EEI 2024 benchmarks)
WORST-CASE OFFTAKE (CANEY)
132.3 MW worst scenario
Best-case: 838.1 MW | ERCOT 2025-2032
CCN / CPCN REQUIREMENT
No
ERCOT: No Certificate of Convenience and Necessity required for load
QUEUE CONTEXT
29 gen projects
At nearby POIs within 20 mi (5,858 MW total per ERCOT queue)
SUBSTATIONS ANALYZED
58
40 with Offtake data · 18 without (within 20 mi)

Summary

Substation POI Time-to-Power Analysis (20 mi radius, top 15)

Substation Voltage Distance Worst MW Best MW Earliest Year Binding Upgrade Eff. Timeline Zone
CANEY 138 kV 3.7 mi 132 838 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Tenaris Substation 138 kV 4.4 mi -14,274 148 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
VAN VLECK 69 kV 4.6 mi -21,666 30 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Hilcorp Substation 60 kV 7.7 mi -1,180 24 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Bay City 138 kV 7.7 mi -13,895 148 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Magill Substation 138 kV 8.1 mi -14,274 108 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Phillips No 5 138 kV 8.9 mi -1,180 118 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Phillips No 2 138 kV 8.9 mi -1,180 130 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Old Ocean 138 kV 9.0 mi -1,180 118 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
FM 524 Substation 138 kV 9.0 mi -50,000 386 2026 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
SWEENY 138 kV 11.0 mi -1,180 376 2026 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Sargent Substation 69 kV 12.6 mi -19,262 24 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Celanese 138 kV 12.7 mi -9,406 116 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Esperanza 138 kV 13.3 mi -9,325 118 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1
Wadsworth 138 kV 14.2 mi -10,581 108 2025 No major upgrade required 6.0 mo Tier 1

CANEY 138 kV — Offtake Headroom by Year (MW)

Time-to-Power Distribution (58 substations)

Analysis

CANEY 138 kV, the primary POI identified by Slide 2 (Withdrawal Capacity), is located 3.7 miles from the site and shows positive Offtake headroom across all ERCOT study years (2025–2032). Under worst-case scenario conditions (minimum across Summer Peak, Winter Peak, High Renewables Min Load, and Light Load), CANEY maintains 132.3 MW of Offtake capacity, rising to 838.1 MW under best-case conditions.

The binding upgrade class is "No major upgrade required" with an estimated timeline of 6–18 months per EEI 2024 interconnection benchmarks. This places the site firmly in the Tier 1 zone (6.0 months). Texas ERCOT does not require a Certificate of Convenience and Necessity (CCN/CPCN) for load interconnection, eliminating a common regulatory bottleneck.

Of 58 substations within 20 miles, 40 have ERCOT Offtake capacity data. 18 substations lack Offtake data (typically lower-voltage distribution substations). 29 generator interconnection queue projects (5,858 MW total) are active at nearby POIs, indicating competitive grid development in the region but also signaling infrastructure investment.

ERCOT does not publish a separate load interconnection queue; only the generator queue is publicly available. Specific upgrade cost estimates require a formal ERCOT planning study or TDU coordination.

Next Steps

Sources