Historical Power Pricing

Tier 3 — $36.7/MWh (LZ_HOUSTON, zonal avg + adjustments)
Criteria: Trailing 24-month average wholesale power price at the pricing reference substation (higher $/MWh = better zone). Fail < $35/MWh · Tier 3 ≥ $35/MWh · Tier 2 ≥ $50/MWh · Tier 1 ≥ $65/MWh
Geoforge curated dataset · US Substations · 2026-08-17
Adjusted Price
$36.7/MWh
Tier 3 — trailing 24-month adjusted average
Base Zonal LMP
$31.69/MWh LZ_HOUSTON
ERCOT Real-Time SPP, Sep 2024 – Aug 2026
Pricing Ref. Substation
CANEY
138 kV · 3.7 mi from site
Adjustments
+$5/MWh Zonal Fallback
Bus-level data unavailable; +$5 zonal penalty applied
Price Volatility
$15–$51
P10–P90 range · Std Dev $42.5/MWh

Analysis

Price Trends & Distribution

Monthly Avg Real-Time SPP — LZ_HOUSTON ($/MWh)

Price Distribution (24-month)

Score Waterfall ($/MWh)

The site is located in ERCOT's Houston Load Zone (LZ_HOUSTON). The trailing 24-month average real-time settlement point price is $31.69/MWh, reflecting the southeast Texas wholesale power market. With the +$5/MWh zonal-only fallback adjustment (bus-level nodal data unavailable), the adjusted price of $36.7/MWh places this site in the Tier 3 zone.

The pricing reference substation is CANEY (138 kV), located 3.7 miles from the site centroid. Monthly averages ranged from $21.76 to $40.76/MWh, with moderate volatility (P10–P90: $15–$51/MWh). The Houston zone benefits from a large, liquid load center with generally stable pricing.

Bus-level (nodal) LMP data is not available through ERCOT's public data portal for individual substations. Analysis uses zonal average pricing with a +$5/MWh fallback adjustment per methodology. Adjustments A (bus-to-zone delta), B (congestion share), and C (negative basis) cannot be computed without bus-level data.

Measurement: WGS 84 / UTM zone 15N (EPSG:32615), utm

Nearest Substations (25-mile radius)

NAME kV DIST (mi) CITY ROLE
CANEY 138 3.7 BAY CITY Pricing Ref
Tenaris Substation 138 4.4
VAN VLECK 69 4.6 VAN VLECK
ALLENHURST N/A 5.2 BAY CITY
Hilcorp Substation 60 7.7
Bay City 138 7.8 BAY CITY
Magill Substation 138 8.2
Peyton Creek Wind GSU 345 8.6
OLD OCEAN 2 138 8.7 OLD OCEAN
LINNVILLE 138 8.8

Adjustment Ledger

ADJUSTMENT VALUE STATUS REASON
D: Zonal-only fallback +$5/MWh Applied Bus-level LMP data not available; using Houston Load Zone average
A: Bus-to-zone delta $0 N/A Cannot compute without bus-level data (zonal fallback path)
B: Adverse congestion share $0 N/A Cannot compute without bus-level data (zonal fallback path)
C: Negative-basis frequency $0 N/A Cannot compute without bus-level data (zonal fallback path)

Next Steps

  • Obtain bus-level nodal LMP data from ERCOT to refine pricing at the CANEY node and remove the zonal fallback adjustment
  • Validate congestion patterns on transmission paths serving the site to assess Adjustments A and B
  • Engage with the serving utility (CenterPoint Energy / AEP Texas) to confirm industrial retail rate options if wholesale procurement is not preferred

Sources