Interconnection Queue Reality Check

Fail – Severely Congested Queue — 19,402 MW queued across 74 POI(s) — Top POI: South Texas Project Pump Substation 138kV
Criteria: Interconnection Queue Reality Check: Sum of active queue MW at POI substations within 25 mi. Pass ≤500 MW | Tier 1 ≤ 1,500 MW | Tier 2 ≤ 3,000 MW | Fail > 3,000 MW
Geoforge curated dataset
Total Queue MW
19,402 MW Severely Congested
90 active projects at 22 POI substations
Likelihood-Weighted MW
14,114 MW 73% of raw
Weighted by study phase progression and IA status
ISO / RTO
ERCOT
All POI substations within ERCOT territory
Technology Breakdown
BESS8,033 MW (41%)
Solar7,536 MW (39%)
Gas2,888 MW (15%)
Wind944 MW (5%)
Queue Status Breakdown
In Study (Facilities)10,546 MW (54%)
Executed IA8,811 MW (45%)
In Study (Feasibility)45 MW (0%)
Top Loaded POIs
South Texas Project Pump Substation4,011 MW (12 proj)
HILLJE3,328 MW (14 proj)
RETRIEVE3,136 MW (15 proj)

Summary

POI Substations with Active Queue (22 of 74 eligible, 25-mile radius)

Substation Voltage Queue MW Projects Weighted MW Load Level Tech Mix
South Texas Project Pump Substation 138 kV 4,011 12 2,659 SEVERE Solar: 2072, Gas: 1336, BESS: 602
HILLJE 345 kV 3,328 14 2,584 SEVERE Solar: 2104, BESS: 1223
RETRIEVE 138 kV 3,136 15 2,435 SEVERE BESS: 1595, Solar: 1028, Gas: 311, Wind: 202
CANEY 138 kV 1,270 2 832 MODERATE Gas: 1036, Solar: 234
NASH 138 kV 1,207 7 926 MODERATE BESS: 845, Gas: 205, Solar: 158
BAILEY 345 kV 959 4 698 MODERATE Solar: 508, BESS: 251, Wind: 200
SOUTH LANE CITY 138 kV 843 5 616 MODERATE BESS: 431, Solar: 412
Conoco 138 kV 796 6 493 MODERATE BESS: 425, Solar: 371
WEST COLUMBIA 138 kV 772 5 664 MODERATE BESS: 672, Solar: 100
BLESSING 345 kV 503 4 302 MODERATE Solar: 349, BESS: 154
REFUGE 345 kV 462 2 350 LIGHT Wind: 241, BESS: 221
BRAZORIA 138 kV 419 1 377 LIGHT BESS: 419
Danevang 138 kV 306 2 245 LIGHT BESS: 306
Danevang 69kV 69 kV 302 1 181 LIGHT Wind: 302
JULIA 345 kV 256 1 154 LIGHT BESS: 256
West Columbia Main 230 kV 201 1 121 LIGHT BESS: 201
Dow Pump Substation 69 kV 201 1 181 LIGHT Solar: 201
BRAZOSPORT 138 kV 154 1 92 LIGHT BESS: 154
Magill Substation 138 kV 143 1 129 LIGHT BESS: 143
PLEDGER 138 kV 110 2 65 LIGHT BESS: 110
DAMON 138 kV 20 2 10 LIGHT BESS: 20
SWEENY 138 kV 6 1 3 LIGHT BESS: 6

Top Queue Projects by Capacity

Project POI Substation MW Tech Status Likelihood Weighted MW
STP Unit2 High Pressure Turbine Upg South Texas Project Pump 1,337 Gas In Study (Facilities) Medium 802
EmberGreen CANEY 1,036 Gas In Study (Facilities) Medium 622
Danish Fields Solar HILLJE 603 Solar Executed IA High 542
Austin Bayou Solar RETRIEVE 502 Solar Executed IA High 452
Duffy Solar South Texas Project Pump 502 Solar Executed IA High 452
Ramsey Storage HILLJE 500 BESS Executed IA High 450
GAMAY ENERGY STORAGE BRAZORIA 419 BESS Executed IA High 377
Bluefox Solar 1 South Texas Project Pump 403 Solar In Study (Facilities) Medium 242
Bluefox Solar 2 South Texas Project Pump 402 Solar In Study (Facilities) Medium 241
Space City Solar HILLJE 366 Solar Executed IA High 329
Elio BESS NASH 317 BESS Executed IA High 286
Bulldog Power II RETRIEVE 311 Gas In Study (Facilities) Medium 187
Royal River BESS WEST COLUMBIA 311 BESS Executed IA High 280
Montgomery Ranch 2 Wind Danevang 69kV 302 Wind In Study (Facilities) Medium 181
Peach Creek Solar BAILEY 300 Solar In Study (Facilities) Medium 180

Queue MW by Technology

Queue MW by Study Phase

Analysis

The ERCOT interconnection queue shows 19,402 MW of active projects across 90 queue entries matched to 22 POI substations within 25 miles of the site. The heaviest-loaded POI is South Texas Project Pump Substation (138 kV) with 4,011 MW queued. The dominant technology is BESS at 8,033 MW.

The raw total of 19,402 MW far exceeds the 3,000 MW Fail threshold, placing this site in the Severely Congested Queue zone. The likelihood-weighted total of 14,114 MW (73% of raw) indicates a high proportion of advanced-stage projects likely to convert, which would have triggered a one-tier downgrade if the zone were not already at the floor.

BESS (8,033 MW) and Solar (7,536 MW) dominate the queue, reflecting the broader ERCOT trend of renewable and storage development in the Texas coastal region. Executed IA projects account for 8,811 MW (45% of total), signaling strong developer commitment.

Queue MW figures are drawn from ERCOT interconnection filings (planning-study source) and represent a planning-envelope estimate, not firm capacity commitments. Historical ERCOT attrition rates suggest 40–60% of early-stage projects may withdraw before completion.

ERCOT queue geocoding: some projects matched to county centroids (geocode_confidence=0.15); POI matching relies on substation name alignment for these entries. Financial security data is not consistently available.

Measurement: WGS 84 / UTM zone 14N (EPSG:32614), utm

Next Steps

Sources