Interconnection Queue Reality Check

Fail — 6,946 MW in queue
Criteria: Total active queue MW at POI substations within 20 mi of site. Tier 1: <500 MW | Tier 2: 500–1,499 MW | Tier 3: 1,500–2,999 MW | Fail: ≥3,000 MW. Lower is better.
Source: ERCOT Interconnection Queue
Queue Assessment
✗ Fail
6,946 MW total · 3,919 MW weighted
Projects Matched
31 at 11 POIs
Of 1,810 ERCOT queue projects
Bottleneck POI
CANEY
1,270 MW across 2 projects (138 kV)
Technology Mix
Conversion Likelihood

Summary

POI Substations with Active Queue Projects (within 20 mi)

Substation Voltage Distance (mi) Queue MW Weighted MW Projects Top Tech
CANEY 138 kV 3.7 1,270 469 2 Gas
BAILEY 345 kV 17.2 1,092 820 4 Solar
West Columbia Main 230 kV 16.8 877 729 3 BESS
SOUTH LANE CITY 138 kV 18.6 840 348 5 BESS
Conoco 138 kV 14.3 791 231 6 BESS
REFUGE 345 kV 9.6 706 491 3 Solar
WEST COLUMBIA 2 138 kV 15.7 514 302 3 BESS
West Columbia Local 138 kV 16.8 357 276 2 BESS
JULIA 345 kV 19.0 256 64 1 BESS
Magill Substation 138 kV 8.1 143 129 1 BESS
PLEDGER 138 kV 15.5 100 60 1 BESS

Analysis

The ERCOT interconnection queue shows 6,946 MW across 31 projects at substations within 20 miles of the site (weighted: 3,919 MW). Heaviest concentration at CANEY (138 kV, 1,270 MW), followed by BAILEY (345 kV, 1,092 MW).

The queue is dominated by BESS (3,469 MW) and solar (2,001 MW) projects, consistent with ERCOT-wide trends toward renewable + storage development. The weighted estimate (3,919 MW) accounts for project maturity: High likelihood projects (IA signed / under construction) carry 0.9x weight, Medium (FIS completed) 0.6x, and Low (early study phase) 0.25x.

Next Steps

1. Review ERCOT GIS queue data for specific projects at the top bottleneck POIs (CANEY, BAILEY, West Columbia Main) to assess withdrawal risk.

2. Evaluate whether projects with Low likelihood may attrite, reducing effective queue congestion at target POIs.

3. Consider alternative POIs with lower queue congestion (Magill, Pledger) if interconnection at primary POIs proves infeasible.

Sources