Interconnection Queue Reality Check

Severely Congested — 13,841 MW across 21/73 POIs
Criteria: Total interconnection queue MW at canonical POI substations within 25 miles. Lower is better. Thresholds: ≤1,500 MW (Light) / ≤3,000 MW (Medium) / ≤5,000 MW (Heavy) / >5,000 MW (Severely Congested). Scored value includes maturity-based adjustments.
Geoforge curated dataset · 2026-09-02
Queue Assessment
Severely Congested
13,841 MW final scored · Threshold: ≤1,500 / ≤3,000 / ≤5,000 MW
Raw Queue MW
12,841 MW 67 projects
Across 21 of 73 canonical POI substations
Executed IA MW
7,432 MW 58% of queue
High conversion-likelihood projects with signed agreements
Adjustments
+1,000 MW
Likelihood +500 · Exec. IA +500
Stale COD MW
713 MW
Projects with COD on or before report date (excluded from raw total)

Summary

Queue Window Timeline — 12,841 MW from 67 matched projects

Top 10 POI Substations by Queued MW

Queued MW by Technology

Top POI Substations by Queue MW (21 of 73 canonical)

# Substation Queue MW IA MW Projects Dist (mi) kV Bucket
1 HILLJE 3,328 2,512 14 23.3 345 >3K
2 CANEY 1,270 1,270 2 2.9 138 501-1.5K
3 NASH 1,207 673 7 22.6 138 501-1.5K
4 SUBSTATION #6 1,003 0 2 7.7 69 501-1.5K
5 BAILEY 959 408 4 16.4 345 501-1.5K
6 SOUTH LANE CITY 843 368 5 17.8 138 501-1.5K
7 Conoco 796 51 6 13.4 138 501-1.5K
8 WEST COLUMBIA 772 668 5 15.6 138 501-1.5K
9 South Texas Project Pump Substation 761 250 3 15.6 138 501-1.5K
10 BLESSING 503 0 4 21.1 345 501-1.5K

Active Queue Projects (Top 15 by MW)

Project POI Sub MW Tech Status COD Wt
EmberGreen CANEY 1,036.0 Gas Executed IA 2028-01-01 1.00
Danish Fields Solar HILLJE 602.8 Solar Executed IA 2026-08-29 (COD passed) 1.00
Elk Ridge Solar SUBSTATION #6 503.0 Solar FIS Requested 2030-07-01 0.60
Ramsey Storage HILLJE 500.0 Other Executed IA 2028-06-30 1.00
MRR Solar SUBSTATION #6 500.0 Solar FIS Requested 2030-07-01 0.60
GAMAY ENERGY STORAGE BRAZORIA 418.6 Other Executed IA 2028-01-01 1.00
Space City Solar HILLJE 366.0 Solar Executed IA 2027-06-01 1.00
Elio BESS NASH 317.2 Other Executed IA 2028-08-05 1.00
Royal River BESS WEST COLUMBIA 310.7 Other Executed IA 2028-06-30 1.00
Oak Tree Energy Storage South Texas Project Pump 310.2 Other FIS Requested 2030-09-20 0.60
Peach Creek Solar BAILEY 300.0 Solar FIS Requested 2029-09-30 0.60
OCI SunRoper SOUTH LANE CITY 265.1 Solar Executed IA 2027-10-01 1.00
First Capitol BESS WEST COLUMBIA 257.5 Other Executed IA 2027-11-01 1.00
Maleza Storage II JULIA 256.1 Other FIS Requested 2028-12-31 0.60
Maleza Solar HILLJE 254.9 Solar Executed IA 2028-12-31 1.00

Analysis

The site is located within the ERCOT ISO territory, served by CenterPoint Energy, AEP Texas Central, and Texas-New Mexico Power. The interconnection queue analysis identifies 73 canonical POI substations (after curation from 81 raw candidates within the 25-mile search radius, filtering to ≥69 kV in-service substations, and excluding TAP, switching, and non-standard features).

Of these 73 canonical substations, 21 carry matched ERCOT queue projects totaling 12,841 MW of raw queue capacity from 67 projects (1,743 projects were unmatched to substations outside the search radius). The likelihood-weighted total is 11,105 MW (86% of raw), and Executed IA capacity totals 7,432 MW (58% of raw).

Both maturity adjustments triggered: likelihood-weighted MW exceeds 70% of raw (+500 MW) and Executed IA exceeds 50% of raw (+500 MW), adding 1,000 MW to the final scored value. The final scored value of 13,841 MW places the site in the Severely Congested zone (threshold: >5,000 MW). 4 projects with 713 MW have passed their projected COD and are excluded from the raw metric but flagged for review.

Queue-to-POI matching is approximate, based on name matching between ERCOT POI Location text and canonical substation names. 84% of ERCOT queue records use county-centroid geocoding rather than exact substation coordinates.

Measurement: WGS 84 / UTM zone 15N (EPSG:32615), utm | Transformation Applied: → (0.0 m)

Next Steps

  • Request ERCOT-specific GIS screening study for the top 3-5 POI substations to confirm available headroom and identify network upgrade requirements
  • Evaluate queue withdrawal rates at high-congestion POIs — historical ERCOT withdrawal rates average 30-40% for early-stage projects
  • Investigate alternative POI substations outside the top-congested list that may offer faster interconnection timelines
  • Assess transmission upgrade projects (ERCOT TPIT) that may relieve congestion at key POIs within the project timeline

Sources